Chipping away at public debt : sources of failure and keys to success in fiscal adjustment

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書誌事項

Chipping away at public debt : sources of failure and keys to success in fiscal adjustment

edited by Paolo Mauro

Wiley, c2011

  • : hardback

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注記

Includes bibliographical references (p. 259-265) and index

内容説明・目次

内容説明

Path-breaking research on one of the most important macroeconomic policy challenges in the post-crisis world, presented in accessible language Written and researched by a team of experts from the International Monetary Fund, other policy-making institutions, and academia, this timely book looks at fiscal adjustment plans in advanced economies, comparing the planned or projected reductions in debts and deficits to the actual outcomes, and explaining why objectives were met in some cases but missed in others. An overview reveals pitfalls to avoid and lessons learned for securing successful fiscal adjustment. Written by experts in the field Addresses public concern about skyrocketing government debts Contains cutting edge research that changes the way we look at fiscal adjustment Presents meticulous archival research in compelling and engaging case studies Explores lessons learned and policy implications going forward Includes country coverage of all G7 and European Union economies Educating and informing investors, economists, and the general public, this important book looks at why some attempts to curb debts and deficits succeed whereas others fail, as well as how to ensure successful fiscal adjustment in the period ahead.

目次

Foreword ix Acknowledgments xi Introduction xiii CHAPTER 1 Canada: A Success Story 1 Cemile Sancak, Lucy Qian Liu, and Taisuke Nakata Introduction 1 Background 2 Plans versus Outcomes: Macroeconomic Factors 7 Nature and Composition of Adjustment 13 Structural Reforms 21 Extent to which Adjustments Were Sustained 23 Conclusion 25 Notes 27 CHAPTER 2 United States: The Quest for Fiscal Discipline 31 Jiri Jonas Introduction 31 First Attempt: Balanced Budget and Emergency Deficit Control Act 1985 33 Second Attempt: Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1990 36 Third Attempt: Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1993 38 Actual versus Projected Fiscal Performance under Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1993 42 1990s Deficit Reduction: Good Policy or Good Luck? 44 Easy Won, Easy Lost? 50 Conclusion 52 Notes 54 CHAPTER 3 France: Virtue and Fortune 57 Edouard Martin, Irina Tytell, and Irina Yakadina Introduction: Factors Underlying the Need for Fiscal Consolidation 57 Early Attempts at Fiscal Adjustment 61 A First Attempt at Medium-Term Fiscal Consolidation, 1994-97 64 A More Systematic Approach to Medium-Term Budgeting: Consolidation Experiences under the Stability and Growth Pact 72 Conclusion 81 Notes 82 CHAPTER 4 Germany: Fiscal Adjustment Attempts With and Without Reforms 85 Christian Breuer, Jan Gottschalk, and Anna Ivanova Introduction 85 1975-79 Consolidation Attempt 88 1981-85 Consolidation Attempt 93 1991-95 Consolidation Attempt 99 2003-07 Consolidation Attempt 105 Lessons 110 Notes 112 CHAPTER 5 United Kingdom: Four Chancellors Facing Challenges 115 Toni Ahnert, Richard Hughes, and Keiko Takahashi Introduction 115 Selection of Consolidation Plans 116 Background, Content, and Performance of the Four Adjustment Plans 117 Determinants of Success and Failure 125 Lessons from Success and Failure 138 Appendix 5A. United Kingdom: Fiscal Adjustment Plans and Outturns 140 Notes 150 CHAPTER 6 Italy: Medium-Term Fiscal Planning under Frequent Government Changes 153 Fabrizio Balassone, Sandro Momigliano, and Pietro Rizza Introduction 153 A Brief History of Italy's Fiscal Planning Framework 155 Short-Term Origins of Medium-Term Failures 157 A Narrative of Design and Performance of Pre- and Post-European Monetary Unit Plans 162 Implementing Plans for the Year Ahead 165 Two Important Plans Analyzed in Detail 167 Conclusion 172 Notes 174 CHAPTER 7 Japan: Fiscal Adjustment Plans and Macroeconomic Shocks 177 Keiko Takahashi and Kiichi Tokuoka Introduction 177 The 1997 Fiscal Structural Reform Act 178 Medium-Term Fiscal Adjustment Plans: Fiscal Year 2002 and the Following 189 Conclusion 203 Appendix 7A: The Bohn Fiscal Sustainability Test 206 Appendix 7B: Timeline of Medium-Term Fiscal Adjustment Plans in Japan 209 Notes 209 CHAPTER 8 The Performance of Large Fiscal Adjustment Plans in the European Union: A Cross-Country Statistical Analysis 213 S. Ali Abbas, Fuad Hasanov, Paolo Mauro, and Junhyung Park Introduction 213 Data, Sample Selection, and Methodology 216 Descriptive Analysis 219 Regression Analysis 232 Conclusion 241 Appendix 8A: Data Issues and Cyclical Adjustment 243 Appendix 8B: Timeline for European Monetary Integration (1990-2009) 245 Notes 246 CHAPTER 9 Conclusion 249 Key Findings: What Failed and What Worked in Past Attempts at Fiscal Adjustment 251 Implications for Planned Adjustments 255 Notes 258 References 259 About the Project Team 267 Index 271

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