Monitoring democracy : when international election observation works, and why it often fails

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書誌事項

Monitoring democracy : when international election observation works, and why it often fails

Judith G. Kelley

Princeton University Press, c2012

  • : pbk
  • : cloth

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注記

Includes bibliographical references (p. [265]-320) and index

内容説明・目次

内容説明

In recent decades, governments and NGOs--in an effort to promote democracy, freedom, fairness, and stability throughout the world--have organized teams of observers to monitor elections in a variety of countries. But when more organizations join the practice without uniform standards, are assessments reliable? When politicians nonetheless cheat and monitors must return to countries even after two decades of engagement, what is accomplished? Monitoring Democracy argues that the practice of international election monitoring is broken, but still worth fixing. By analyzing the evolving interaction between domestic and international politics, Judith Kelley refutes prevailing arguments that international efforts cannot curb government behavior and that democratization is entirely a domestic process. Yet, she also shows that democracy promotion efforts are deficient and that outside actors often have no power and sometimes even do harm. Analyzing original data on over 600 monitoring missions and 1,300 elections, Kelley grounds her investigation in solid historical context as well as studies of long-term developments over several elections in fifteen countries. She pinpoints the weaknesses of international election monitoring and looks at how practitioners and policymakers might help to improve them.

目次

Illustrations xi Tables xiii Preface xv Abbreviations xix PART I Chapter 1: Introduction 3 Two Questions 6 Methods of Analysis 12 Chapter 2: Th e Rise of a New Norm 16 The Changing Normative Environment 21 Contestation 23 Increased Supply and Demand 26 The Popularization of Monitoring 28 Monitoring Today: Organizational Variation 34 Summary 41 Chapter 3: Th e Shadow Market 43 Disagreements about Contested Elections 47 Who Invites Whom? 54 Discussion 56 Chapter 4: What Infl uences Monitors' Assessments? 59 Analyzing Summary Monitor Assessments 60 Five Types of Bias 63 Discussion 75 Chapter 5: Do Politicians Change Tactics to Evade Criticism? 77 What Constitutes Evidence of a Monitor- Induced Shift ? 78 What Are the Safer Forms of Cheating? 80 Data: Th e Varieties of Irregularities 82 The Record 84 Discussion 92 PART II Chapter 6: International Monitors as Reinforcement 97 Altering Incentives to Cheat 99 Altering Domestic Conditions 104 If It Works, When Should It Work? 107 Summary 109 Chapter 7: Are Monitored Elections Better? 112 Measures of Election Quality 112 An Overview of the Record 115 Statistical Analysis 121 Discussion 129 Chapter 8: Long- Term Eff ects 131 Selection of Countries and Method of Analysis 133 Do International Monitors Improve Elections Over Time? 136 When Do Countries Follow the Recommendations of International Monitors? 141 Discussion 151 Conclusion: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly 155 Do Monitors Assess Elections Accurately and Objectively? 156 Do Monitors Improve the Quality of Elections? 166 Closing Th oughts 176 Appendix A: Data Description 181 Two Datasets 181 Variables 184 Appendix B: Statistical Supplement to Chapter 3 195 Appendix C: Statistical Supplement to Chapter 4 197 Dependent Variable 197 Analysis 197 Appendix D: Statistical Supplement to Chapter 7 199 with Mark Buntaine Additional Description of Matching Process 199 Appendix E: Case Summaries 211 with Kiril Kolev Albania: Th e Importance of Leverage 211 Armenia: Paper Compliance 214 Bangladesh: Slowly but Surely? 218 Bulgaria: Motivated but Slow 221 El Salvador: International Meddling for Both Good and Bad 223 Georgia: Not So Rosy 228 Guyana: Uphill Battle 232 Indonesia: A Sluggish Behemoth 237 Kenya: One Step Forward, Two Steps Back 242 Lesotho: Deadlock 245 Mexico: Constructive Engagement 247 Nicaragua: Excessive Meddling and Deal Making 252 Panama: Both a Will and a Way 256 Russia: Goliath Beats David 258 South Africa: Remarkably Unremarkable 261 Notes 265 References 293 Index 321

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