CiNii 図書 - China's macroeconomic outlook : quarterly forecast and analysis report

As the sluggish external market demand and excess domestic investment in past years have caused excess production capacity, resulting in both industrial growth rate and GDP growth rate falling to lowest point for the last three years in China. Where would China's economy go? China's Macroeconomic Outlook, September 2013 provides some insights into the details of the economic development in China, and also includes series of simulations of the impact of decreasing government revenue on the economic performance. The research suggests that China should cut its government revenue share in GDP to promote its structural adjustment.

Preface.- Introduction.- A Review of China's Economy in the First Half Year of 2013.- Forecasts of China's Economy for 2013-2014.- Policy Simulations.- Policy Implications.

巻冊次: Sept. 2014 ISBN 9783662454046

内容説明

This book is a quarterly forecast and analysis report on the Chinese economy. It is published twice a year and presents ongoing result from the "China Quarterly Macroeconomic Model (CQMM)," a research project at the Center for Macroeconomic Research (CMR) at Xiamen University. Based on the CQMM model, the research team forecast major macroeconomic indicators for the next 8 quarters, including the rate of GDP growth, the CPI, fixed-asset investment, resident consumption and foreign trade. At the same time it focuses on simulation of current macroeconomic policies in China. In addition to helping readers understand China's economic trend and policy guide, this book has three main goals: to help readers understand China's economic performance; to forecast the main macroeconomic indicators for the next 8 quarters; and to simulate the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies.

Preface.- Introduction.- A Review of China's Economy in the first half of 2014.- Forecasts of China's Economy for 2014-2015.- Policy Simulation.- Policy Implications and Recommendations.- Comments and Discussion.- A Survey of China's Macroeconomic Performance in the First Half of 2014.

巻冊次: Feb. 2019 ISBN 9789811393563

内容説明

This report is a partial result of the China's Quarterly Macroeconomic Model (CQMM), a project developed and maintained by the Center for Macroeconomic Research (CMR) at Xiamen University. The CMR, one of the Key Research Institutes of Humanities and Social Sciences sponsored by the Ministry of Education of China, has been focusing on China's economic forecast and macroeconomic policy analysis, and it started to develop the CQMM for purpose of short-term forecasting, policy analysis, and simulation in 2005. Based on the CQMM, the CMR and its partners hold press conferences to release forecasts for China's major macroeconomic variables. Since July, 2006, twenty-six quarterly reports on China's macroeconomic outlook have been presented and thirteen annual reports have been published. This report, the twenty-sixth quarterly report, has been presented at the Forum on China's Macroeconomic Outlook and Press Conference of CQMM on February 26, 2019. This conference was jointly held at Beijing by the CMR and the Economic Information Daily at Xinhua News Agency

Chapter 1. Review of China's Macroeconomy in 2018.- Chapter 2. China's Macroeconomic Forecast for 2019-2020.- Chapter 3.Two Scenarios to Analyze the Effects of Reducing Social Insurance Rate.- Chapter 4.Policy Recommendations.

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China's macroeconomic outlook : quarterly forecast and analysis report

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