Forecasting China's future : dominance or collapse?
著者
書誌事項
Forecasting China's future : dominance or collapse?
（RoutledgeCurzon contemporary China series, 128）
Routledge, 2016
- : hbk
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注記
Includes bibliographical references and index
内容説明・目次
内容説明
China's future development is likely to have a huge impact on twenty-first century global outcomes. It is therefore surprising that, thus far, so little attention has been given to comparing and evaluating expert forecasts of China's future in the post-Mao era.
This book presents an illuminating and comprehensive summary record of contrasting and competing expert forecasts and judgements about the major issues confronting China within four principal domains - political, economic, environmental, and international. After considering the principal forecasting methods available to experts, the author comments critically on the degree of success achieved in using those methods and emphasises the confusion created by the polarisation of opinion and by the failure of many experts to accept the high degree of uncertainty that characterises most of the key issues. The book recommends a new approach based on the study of a hierarchy of critical uncertainties and on continuing analysis of opposing expert opinions about these uncertainties. It emphasises the potential for both positive and negative outcomes for these critical uncertainties, and the importance of maximising the potential for positive outcomes through improved analytical and policy frameworks.
Providing insights for specialists and non-specialists into the most critical issues that will determine China's future direction, this book will be of particular interest to students and scholars of political, economic, environmental, and international relations issues in China and Asia, as well as to readers in business and government.
目次
1. Introduction 2. Pessimists and Optimists 3. Acknowledging Uncertainty 4. Political Uncertainties 5. Economic Uncertainties 6. Environmental Uncertainties 7. International Uncertainties 8. Embracing Uncertainty
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