Probability

著者

書誌事項

Probability

Darrell P. Rowbottom

Polity Press, 2015

  • : pb

大学図書館所蔵 件 / 全5件

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注記

Includes bibliographical references and index

収録内容

  • Probability : a two faced guide to life?
  • The classical interpretation
  • The logical interpretation
  • The subjective interpretation
  • The objective Bayesian interpretation
  • Group level interpretations
  • The frequency interpretation
  • The propensity interpretation
  • Fallacies, puzzles, and a paradox
  • Probability in the humanities, natural sciences, and social sciences

内容説明・目次

内容説明

When a doctor tells you there s a one percent chance that an operation will result in your death, or a scientist claims that his theory is probably true, what exactly does that mean? Understanding probability is clearly very important, if we are to make good theoretical and practical choices. In this engaging and highly accessible introduction to the philosophy of probability, Darrell Rowbottom takes the reader on a journey through all the major interpretations of probability, with reference to real-world situations. In lucid prose, he explores the many fallacies of probabilistic reasoning, such as the gambler s fallacy and the inverse fallacy , and shows how we can avoid falling into these traps by using the interpretations presented. He also illustrates the relevance of the interpretation of probability across disciplinary boundaries, by examining which interpretations of probability are appropriate in diverse areas such as quantum mechanics, game theory, and genetics. Using entertaining dialogues to draw out the key issues at stake, this unique book will appeal to students and scholars across philosophy, the social sciences, and the natural sciences.

目次

Preface Chapter 1: Probability: A Two Faced Guide to Life? Chapter 2: The Classical Interpretation Chapter 3: The Logical Interpretation Chapter 4: The Subjective Interpretation Chapter 5: The Objective Bayesian Interpretation Chapter 6: Group Level Interpretations Chapter 7: The Frequency Interpretation Chapter 8: The Propensity Interpretation Chapter 9: Fallacies, Puzzles, and a Paradox Chapter 10: Interpreting Probability in the Humanities, Natural Sciences and Social Sciences Appendix A. The Axioms and Laws of Probability B. Bayes s Theorem References

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