Squandered opportunity : neoclassical realism and Iranian foreign policy
著者
書誌事項
Squandered opportunity : neoclassical realism and Iranian foreign policy
Stanford University Press, c2015
- : cloth
大学図書館所蔵 全1件
  青森
  岩手
  宮城
  秋田
  山形
  福島
  茨城
  栃木
  群馬
  埼玉
  千葉
  東京
  神奈川
  新潟
  富山
  石川
  福井
  山梨
  長野
  岐阜
  静岡
  愛知
  三重
  滋賀
  京都
  大阪
  兵庫
  奈良
  和歌山
  鳥取
  島根
  岡山
  広島
  山口
  徳島
  香川
  愛媛
  高知
  福岡
  佐賀
  長崎
  熊本
  大分
  宮崎
  鹿児島
  沖縄
  韓国
  中国
  タイ
  イギリス
  ドイツ
  スイス
  フランス
  ベルギー
  オランダ
  スウェーデン
  ノルウェー
  アメリカ
注記
Includes bibliographical references and index
内容説明・目次
内容説明
The Islamic Republic of Iran faced a favorable strategic environment following the US invasions of Afghanistan in 2001 and Iraq in 2003. Its leadership attempted to exploit this window of opportunity by assertively seeking to expand Iran's interests throughout the Middle East. It fell far short, however, of fulfilling its long-standing ambition of becoming the dominant power in the Persian Gulf and a leading regional power in the broader Middle East.
In Squandered Opportunity, Thomas Juneau develops a variant of neoclassical realism, a theory of foreign policy mistakes, to explore the causes and consequences of Iran's sub-optimal performance. He argues that while rising power drove Iranian assertiveness-as most variants of realism would predict-the peculiar nature of Iran's power and the intervention of specific domestic factors caused Iran's foreign policy to deviate, sometimes significantly, from what would be considered the potential optimal outcomes.
Juneau explains that this sub-optimal foreign policy led to important and negative consequences for the country. Despite some gains, Iran failed to maximize its power, its security and its influence in three crucial areas: the Arab-Israeli conflict; Iraq; and the nuclear program. Juneau also predicts that, as the window of opportunity steadily closes for Iran, its power, security, and influence will likely continue to decline in coming years.
目次
Contents and AbstractsIntroduction chapter abstractThe introduction sets the stage by explaining how the book offers an original reading of Iran's foreign policy: why and how Tehran failed to seize the opportunities it faced after 2001. It starts by briefly demonstrating that various international relations theories fail to explain the underwhelming nature of Iran's foreign policy. It then outlines a unique variant of neoclassical realism, both in general terms and in terms of its specific application to the Iranian case. It then introduces the book's research objectives and working hypotheses, followed by a brief methodological discussion.
1Neoclassical Realism chapter abstractThis chapter reviews the literature on neoclassical realism, and explains its evolution as well as its strengths and weaknesses. Neoclassical realists agree with other realists that power is the chief determinant of foreign policy. Yet a reliance solely on structural factors - a state's position in the international distribution of power - cannot account for underwhelming performances, structure explains the context in which a state operates but says little about the content of foreign policy. Neoclassical realists thus posit that domestic factors act as intervening variables or 'transmission belts' converting systemic pressures into choices. In addition, neoclassical realism is a theory of mistakes differentiating ideal or optimal foreign policy (responding solely to structural pressures) from actual, sub-optimal choices, which arise as a result of the filtering effect of domestic pathologies.
2From Power to Foreign Policy: The Causal Chain chapter abstractThis chapter proposes modifications to neoclassical realism, labeling the result the strategic analysis variant. It is possible to view this variant in terms of its position on a continuum built around a tenet of realism, that capabilities shape intentions. At one end, structural realism predicts that states faced with a power vacuum seek to expand their interests abroad. At the other end, the strategic analysis variant increases accuracy while remaining within the confines of realism: it fragments power to understand how shifts in its components affect foreign policy, it increases the number and specificity of intervening variables to reflect their filtering role, it conceptualizes foreign policy more precisely by separating it into four components (power/security/influence-maximization, national interests, strategies, and consequences), and it systematizes the concepts of actual and ideal foreign policy and clarifies how states suffer consequences as a result of gaps between ideal and actual versions.
3Power chapter abstractThis chapter introduces the structural context driving Iranian foreign policy. Iran, to begin, benefits from a strong pool of potential power assets, by dint of its geography, natural resources, and population. In addition, Iran faced a window of opportunity after 2001, a power advantage which primarily arose with the collapse of rival regimes in Afghanistan and Iraq. Other factors including the rise in oil prices and the success of allies such as Hamas and Hezbollah also helped create favourable conditions. Yet this advantage was brittle and unsustainable. A large proportion of the growth in Iran's power was accounted for by unconventional elements: asymmetric military capabilities, the attractiveness of its rejectionist model and alliances with non-state actors, while hard aspects - wealth and conventional military assets - grew in absolute terms but stagnated in relative terms.
4Domestic Pathologies chapter abstractSystemic pressures are filtered through domestic processes, explaining the conversion from possible - the range of feasible outcomes shaped by power - to actual choices. Three intervening variables matter: status, identity and factional politics. There is a discrepancy, first, between Iran's aspiration to regional power status and its perception that the status ascribed to it is unbecoming of what it believes is its rightful place in the regional order, it suffers from a status discrepancy. This is a source of revisionism, but remains indeterminate. To achieve greater specificity, the second variable consists of the Iranian regime's rejectionist identity, which specifies Iran's interests by ranking alternatives and shaping decisions. The balance of power among regime factions - the third intervening variable - constantly evolves but remains within the parameters of the Islamic Republic's identity. That is, power, aspirations and identity shape an increasingly precise set of options, bargaining among factions subsequently determines which are selected.
5Iran's Policy in Iraq chapter abstractIran has major interests in Iraq: geography ensures that the security of each is partly dependent on the power and ambitions of the other. In Iraq, Iran's power was less constrained than in the Arab-Israeli conflict, with conventional elements of power playing a salient role. Iran had genuine security concerns emanating from the presence of US troops and instability in Iraq. There was thus less scope for agency as structural pressures pushed and shoved Iran more compellingly. Tehran partly accomplished its objectives: it positioned itself as an indispensable player in Iraq and was instrumental in the establishment of a stable but weak Iraqi government devoid of anti-Iranian biases. Nonetheless, Iran's performance has been sub-optimal, though less than in other issue-areas. This smaller discrepancy was due to the limited role of domestic pathologies in shaping policies: there was therefore less deviation from optimal, structurally-induced outcomes.
6Iran and the Arab-Israeli Conflict chapter abstractIran's rising power pushes it towards greater assertiveness in the Arab-Israeli conflict. Yet solely on the basis of structural pressures, there is limited security for Iran to maximize: it does not share a border with Israel and economic ties are limited. Structure thus provided strong but ambiguous signals, leaving scope for domestic pathologies to distort policy. The combination of rising power and status discrepancy tells us that Iran will be an assertive and revisionist power, while regime identity specifies the rejectionist nature of this revisionism. As the factional balance increasingly favoured hard-liners, policy further tilted towards rejectionism. Yet Iran only has a narrow set of tools, especially the appeal of its rejectionism and its ties to like-minded actors. This limits the breadth of the impact it can have on the conflict, and is insufficient to shape the regional order in the revisionist direction it envisions.
7Iran's Nuclear Program chapter abstractDriven by its rising power, an assertive Iran progressed along the nuclear path. Structural pressures were strong but indeterminate, however, failing to push Iran as compellingly as in Iraq. This allowed domestic pathologies to influence policy. Iran suffers from a status discrepancy: it wants to reap the benefits associated with joining the nuclear club but is denied the opportunity. It is thus dissatisfied with the nuclear order. The regime's identity and the evolution of the factional balance in favour of conservatives and hard-liners specify how revisionist options were narrowed towards rejectionism. Tehran has been able to gain influence thanks to its nuclear program, more than in the Arab-Israeli conflict but less than in Iraq. Most importantly, the program promises future benefits. Paradoxically, Iran also suffers significant consequences because of its choices: its economy is increasingly suffocated by sanctions, while the country suffers from growing isolation.
Conclusion chapter abstractThe Conclusion synthesizes the results by discussing how Iran's power, security and influence, despite some successes, remain well below their potential. The situation, moreover, is likely to get worse: Iran's power will face growing constraints in coming years. Next, the conclusion argues that the analysis validates the view of structural realism as a normative theory - accounting for how states should behave - and of neoclassical realism as a theory of mistakes, accounting for the gap between ideal and actual policies through its integration of domestic processes. This arises in part because of the distinction between rationality and optimality: neoclassical realism provides a framework explaining why choices are rational but not necessarily optimal. After reflecting on the relevance of other pillars of the framework - complexity, eclecticism, dynamism, path-dependency and foreign policy strategies - the conclusion offers prescriptions for Iran to maximize its power, security and influence.
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