Predicting the unpredictable : the tumultuous science of earthquake prediction
著者
書誌事項
Predicting the unpredictable : the tumultuous science of earthquake prediction
Princeton University Press, 2016, c2010
- : pbk
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注記
First hardcover ed. published in 2010
"Index of earthquakes by year": p. [261]
Includes bibliographical references and indexes
内容説明・目次
内容説明
An earthquake can strike without warning and wreak horrific destruction and death, whether it's the catastrophic 2010 quake that took a devastating toll on the island nation of Haiti or a future great earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in California, which scientists know is inevitable. Yet despite rapid advances in earthquake science, seismologists still can't predict when the Big One will hit. Predicting the Unpredictable explains why, exploring the fact and fiction behind the science--and pseudoscience--of earthquake prediction. Susan Hough traces the continuing quest by seismologists to forecast the time, location, and magnitude of future quakes. She brings readers into the laboratory and out into the field--describing attempts that have raised hopes only to collapse under scrutiny, as well as approaches that seem to hold future promise. She also ventures to the fringes of pseudoscience to consider ideas outside the scientific mainstream. An entertaining and accessible foray into the world of earthquake prediction, Predicting the Unpredictable illuminates the unique challenges of predicting earthquakes.
目次
1. Ready to Rumble 1 2. Ready to Explode 12 3. Irregular Clocks 29 4. The Hayward Fault 39 5. Predicting the Unpredictable 47 6. The Road to Haicheng 58 7. Percolation 86 8. The Heyday 96 9. The Hangover 108 10. Highly Charged Debates 125 11. Reading the Tea Leaves 141 12. Accelerating Moment Release 150 13. On the Fringe 158 14. Complicity 171 15. Measles 191 16. We All Have Our Faults 196 17. The Bad One 206 18. Whither Earthquake Prediction? 222 Acknowledgments 231 Notes 233 General Index 255 Index of Earthquakes by Year 261 Preface to the Paperback Edition vii
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