Future babble : why pundits are hedgehogs and foxes know best

書誌事項

Future babble : why pundits are hedgehogs and foxes know best

Dan Gardner

(A Plume book)

Plume Book, 2012

  • : pbk

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注記

Includes bibliographical references (p. [287]-294) and index

内容説明・目次

内容説明

New York Times bestselling author of Superforecasting and Future Babble "Genuinely arresting . . . required reading for journalists, politicians, academics, and anyone who listens to them."-Steven Pinker, author of How the Mind Works We are awash in predictions. In newspapers, blogs, and books; on radio and television. Every day experts tell us how the economy will perform next year, if housing sales will grow or shrink, and who will win the next election. Predictions are offered about the climate, food, technology, and the world our grandchildren will inhabit. And we can't get enough of it. Drawing on research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics, award-winning journalist Dan Gardner explores our obsession with the future. He shows how famous pundits, "hedgehogs" who stick to one big idea no matter how circumstances change, become expert at explaining away predictions that are wrong while "foxes," who are more equivocal in their judgments, are simply more accurate.

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詳細情報

  • NII書誌ID(NCID)
    BB24092354
  • ISBN
    • 9780452297579
  • 出版国コード
    us
  • タイトル言語コード
    eng
  • 本文言語コード
    eng
  • 出版地
    New York
  • ページ数/冊数
    xi, 305 p.
  • 大きさ
    21 cm
  • 親書誌ID
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