Future babble : why pundits are hedgehogs and foxes know best
著者
書誌事項
Future babble : why pundits are hedgehogs and foxes know best
（A Plume book）
Plume Book, 2012
- : pbk
大学図書館所蔵 全1件
注記
Includes bibliographical references (p. [287]-294) and index
内容説明・目次
内容説明
New York Times bestselling author of Superforecasting and Future Babble
"Genuinely arresting . . . required reading for journalists, politicians, academics, and anyone who listens to them."-Steven Pinker, author of How the Mind Works
We are awash in predictions. In newspapers, blogs, and books; on radio and television. Every day experts tell us how the economy will perform next year, if housing sales will grow or shrink, and who will win the next election. Predictions are offered about the climate, food, technology, and the world our grandchildren will inhabit. And we can't get enough of it.
Drawing on research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics, award-winning journalist Dan Gardner explores our obsession with the future. He shows how famous pundits, "hedgehogs" who stick to one big idea no matter how circumstances change, become expert at explaining away predictions that are wrong while "foxes," who are more equivocal in their judgments, are simply more accurate.
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