Overconfidence and risk taking in foreign policy decision making : the case of Turkey's Syria policy
Author(s)
Bibliographic Information
Overconfidence and risk taking in foreign policy decision making : the case of Turkey's Syria policy
(Palgrave pivot)
Palgrave Macmillan, c2017
Available at 1 libraries
  Aomori
  Iwate
  Miyagi
  Akita
  Yamagata
  Fukushima
  Ibaraki
  Tochigi
  Gunma
  Saitama
  Chiba
  Tokyo
  Kanagawa
  Niigata
  Toyama
  Ishikawa
  Fukui
  Yamanashi
  Nagano
  Gifu
  Shizuoka
  Aichi
  Mie
  Shiga
  Kyoto
  Osaka
  Hyogo
  Nara
  Wakayama
  Tottori
  Shimane
  Okayama
  Hiroshima
  Yamaguchi
  Tokushima
  Kagawa
  Ehime
  Kochi
  Fukuoka
  Saga
  Nagasaki
  Kumamoto
  Oita
  Miyazaki
  Kagoshima
  Okinawa
  Korea
  China
  Thailand
  United Kingdom
  Germany
  Switzerland
  France
  Belgium
  Netherlands
  Sweden
  Norway
  United States of America
Note
Includes bibliographical references (p. 123-135) and index
Description and Table of Contents
Description
This book introduces a new perspective on risk seeking behaviour, developing a framework based on various cognitive theories, and applying it to the specific case-study of Turkey's foreign policy toward Syria. The author examines why policy makers commit themselves to polices that they do not have the capacity to deliver, and develops an alternative theoretical model to prospect theory in explaining risk taking behaviour based on the concept of overconfidence. The volume suggests that overconfident individuals exhibit risk seeking behaviour that contradicts the risk averse behaviour of individuals in the domain of gain, as predicted by prospect theory. Using a set of testable hypothesis deduced from the model, it presents an empirical investigation of the causes behind Turkish decision makers' unprecedented level of risk taking toward the uprising in Syria and the consequences of this policy.
Table of Contents
1. Introduction
2. The Relevant Literature on Past Outcomes, Overconfidence and Risk Taking
3. Modeling the Relationship between Past Outcomes, Overconfidence and Risk Taking
4. The Turkish Policy to Remove Syrian President Assad: Overconfidence Obscures Risks and Magnifies Failure
5. The Turkish Policy to Remove Syrian President Assad: Overconfidence Obscures Risks and Magnifies Failure
6. Conclusion
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