The logic of intelligence analysis : why hypothesis testing matters
著者
書誌事項
The logic of intelligence analysis : why hypothesis testing matters
（Routledge focus）
Routledge, Taylor and Francis Group, 2020
- : pbk
大学図書館所蔵 件 / 全1件
-
該当する所蔵館はありません
- すべての絞り込み条件を解除する
注記
"First published 2018. First issued in paperback 2020" -- T.p. verso
Includes bibliographical references and index
内容説明・目次
内容説明
This book discusses the application of hypothesis testing to the practice of intelligence analysis.
By drawing on longstanding procedures of scientific method, particularly hypothesis testing, this book strongly critiques standard intelligence analytic practices. It shows these practices to be inadequate, as they are illogical in terms of what formal philosophy says any intelligence analysts can realistically be expected to know, and for the future when analysts will face pressures to adapt to digital age modeling techniques. The methodology focuses on identifying and remedying analytic errors caused by analyst cognitive biases and by foreign denial and deception. To demonstrate that it is a practical tool, it walks analysts through a case study, step by step, to show how its hypothesis testing can be implemented. It also invites a comparative test in the real world with any other intelligence methodologies to assess its strengths and weaknesses in predicting the outcome of an actual "live" intelligence issue.
This book will be of much interest to students of intelligence studies, public policy and national security, as well as practitioners.
目次
Preface: Revisiting an Old Problem: New Concerns, New Remedies Chapter 1: Maybe It's Time for Something Different Chapter 2: Strengthening Intelligence Threat Analysis Chapter 3: Using Enhanced Analytic Techniques for Threat Analysis: A Case Study Illustration Chapter 4: I Got Algorithm: Can There Be a Nate Silver in Intelligence?
「Nielsen BookData」 より
