COVID-19 pandemic dynamics : mathematical simulations
著者
書誌事項
COVID-19 pandemic dynamics : mathematical simulations
Springer, c2021
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注記
Includes bibliographical references (p. 165-172)
内容説明・目次
内容説明
This book highlights the estimate of epidemic characteristics for different countries/regions in the world with the use of known SIR (susceptible-infected-removed) model for the dynamics of the epidemic, the known exact solution of the linear differential equations and statistical approach developed before. The COVID-19 pandemic is of great interest to researchers due to its high mortality and a negative impact to the world economy. Correct simulation of the pandemic dynamics needs complicated mathematical models and many efforts for unknown parameters identification. The simple method of detection of the new pandemic wave is proposed and SIR model generalized. The hidden periods, epidemic durations, final numbers of cases, the effective reproduction numbers and probabilities of meeting an infected person are presented for countries like USA, Germany, UK, the Republic of Korea, Italy, Spain, France, the Republic of Moldova, Ukraine, and for the world. The presented information is useful to regulate the quarantine activities and to predict the medical and economic consequences of different/future pandemics.
目次
Introduction
1. Data used for calculations, comparisons and verifications
2. Early stages of epidemics and exponential growth
3. Comparisons of the early stages of Covid-19 pandemic in different regions
4. Classical SIR model and the exact solution of differential equations
5. Statistics-based procedure of the parameter identification for the classical SIR model
6. Probability of meeting an infected person
7. Estimations of the effective reproduction number
8. Results of SIR simulation for the pandemic dynamics in different countries and regions
9. Hidden periods of Covid-19 pandemic
10. Long-time predictions for the pandemic dynamics
11. Identification of the new waves of the Covid-19 pandemic
12. General SIR model and its exact solution
13. Procedures of the parameter identification for the waves of epidemics
14. Applications of the general SIR model for calculations of the Covid-19 epidemic waves in Ukraine
15. Global waves of Covid-19 pandemic
16. Conclusions
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