Catastrophic success : why foreign-imposed regime change goes wrong
著者
書誌事項
Catastrophic success : why foreign-imposed regime change goes wrong
（Cornell studies in security affairs / edited by Robert J. Art, Robert Jervis, and Stephen M. Walt）
Cornell University Press, 2021
- : hardcover
大学図書館所蔵 件 / 全2件
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注記
Content Type: text (rdacontent), still image (rdacontent), Media Type: unmediated (rdamedia), Carrier Type: volume (rdacarrier)
Summary: "The author explains why foreign-imposed regime change so often goes awry. Drawing on two centuries of data and over one hundred regime changes, he shows that regime change increases the likelihood of internal conflict in target states and fails to reduce the probability of intervener-target conflict"-- Provided by publisher
Includes bibliographical references (p. 359-391) and index
収録内容
- Catastrophic Success
- Contents
- List of Figures and Tables
- Acknowledgments
- List of Abbreviations
- Introduction
- 1. Defining Foreign-Imposed Regime Change
- 2. Theorizing the Effects of Foreign-Imposed Regime Change
- 3. Foreign-Imposed Regime Change and Civil War
- 4. Foreign-Imposed Regime Change and the Survival of Leaders
- 5. Foreign-Imposed Regime Change and Interstate Relations
- Conclusion
内容説明・目次
内容説明
In Catastrophic Success, Alexander B. Downes compiles all instances of regime change around the world over the past two centuries. Drawing on this impressive data set, Downes shows that regime change increases the likelihood of civil war and violent leader removal in target states and fails to reduce the probability of conflict between intervening states and their targets. As Downes demonstrates, when a state confronts an obstinate or dangerous adversary, the lure of toppling its government and establishing a friendly administration is strong. The historical record, however, shows that foreign-imposed regime change is, in the long term, neither cheap, easy, nor consistently successful. The strategic impulse to forcibly oust antagonistic or non-compliant regimes overlooks two key facts. First, the act of overthrowing a foreign government sometimes causes its military to disintegrate, sending thousands of armed men into the countryside where they often wage an insurgency against the intervener. Second, externally-imposed leaders face a domestic audience in addition to an external one, and the two typically want different things. These divergent preferences place imposed leaders in a quandary: taking actions that please one invariably alienates the other. Regime change thus drives a wedge between external patrons and their domestic proteges or between proteges and their people. Catastrophic Success provides sober counsel for leaders and diplomats. Regime change may appear an expeditious solution, but states are usually better off relying on other tools of influence, such as diplomacy. Regime change, Downes urges, should be reserved for exceptional cases. Interveners must recognize that, absent a rare set of promising preconditions, regime change often instigates a new period of uncertainty and conflict that impedes their interests from being realized.
目次
Introduction
1. Defining Foreign-Imposed Regime Change
2. Theorizing the Effects of Foreign-Imposed Regime Change
3. Foreign-Imposed Regime Change and Civil War
4. Foreign-Imposed Regime Change and the Survival of Leaders
5. Foreign-Imposed Regime Change and Interstate Relations
Conclusion
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