Bernoulli's fallacy : statistical illogic and the crisis of modern science

著者

    • Clayton, Aubrey

書誌事項

Bernoulli's fallacy : statistical illogic and the crisis of modern science

Aubrey Clayton

Columbia University Press, c2021

  • : [hardback]

大学図書館所蔵 件 / 全2件

この図書・雑誌をさがす

注記

Includes bibliographical references (p. [323]-334) and index

内容説明・目次

内容説明

There is a logical flaw in the statistical methods used across experimental science. This fault is not a minor academic quibble: it underlies a reproducibility crisis now threatening entire disciplines. In an increasingly statistics-reliant society, this same deeply rooted error shapes decisions in medicine, law, and public policy with profound consequences. The foundation of the problem is a misunderstanding of probability and its role in making inferences from observations. Aubrey Clayton traces the history of how statistics went astray, beginning with the groundbreaking work of the seventeenth-century mathematician Jacob Bernoulli and winding through gambling, astronomy, and genetics. Clayton recounts the feuds among rival schools of statistics, exploring the surprisingly human problems that gave rise to the discipline and the all-too-human shortcomings that derailed it. He highlights how influential nineteenth- and twentieth-century figures developed a statistical methodology they claimed was purely objective in order to silence critics of their political agendas, including eugenics. Clayton provides a clear account of the mathematics and logic of probability, conveying complex concepts accessibly for readers interested in the statistical methods that frame our understanding of the world. He contends that we need to take a Bayesian approach-that is, to incorporate prior knowledge when reasoning with incomplete information-in order to resolve the crisis. Ranging across math, philosophy, and culture, Bernoulli's Fallacy explains why something has gone wrong with how we use data-and how to fix it.

目次

Preface Acknowledgments Introduction 1. What Is Probability? 2. The Titular Fallacy 3. Adolphe Quetelet's Bell Curve Bridge 4. The Frequentist Jihad 5. The Quote-Unquote Logic of Orthodox Statistics 6. The Replication Crisis/Opportunity 7. The Way Out Notes Bibliography Index

「Nielsen BookData」 より

詳細情報

ページトップへ