平成期における廃校の発生に影響を与える要因に関する研究

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書誌事項

タイトル別名
  • A STUDY ON FACTORS AFFECTING THE OCCURRENCE OF CLOSED SCHOOLS IN THE HEISEI PERIOD
  • 平成期における廃校の発生に影響を与える要因に関する研究 : 愛知県・岐阜県・三重県・静岡県の事例を通して
  • ヘイセイキ ニ オケル ハイコウ ノ ハッセイ ニ エイキョウ オ アタエル ヨウイン ニ カンスル ケンキュウ : アイチケン ・ ギフケン ・ ミエケン ・ シズオカケン ノ ジレイ オ トオシテ
  • － In case of Aichi, Gifu, Mie, and Sizuoka prefecture －
  • －愛知県・岐阜県・三重県・静岡県の事例を通して－

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<p> ・The total number of closed schools that occurred in the period of Heisei was 423 schools, which notably increased at a steep rate after 2013. By prefecture, Mie Prefecture had the largest number of 157 schools (37%), and by school type, each prefecture had the largest number of 295 (70%) on elementary schools.</p><p> ・From the factor analysis, we clarified the characteristics of local attributes, which are one of the social factors, in the timeframe when the national census was conducted for six times periodically in the Heisei period. From 2005 onwards in the middle of the Heisei period, due to the transition to a declining population, we showed a method to interpret the characteristics of local attributes, by utilizing the indicators such as "the urban growth potential" and "the risk of population decline".</p><p> ・By classifying the municipalities and by mapping it onto a scatter diagram per each group based on the above-mentioned index, we represented visually the position of the municipalities as per the characteristics of the local attributes. This process would allow us to analyze the role of municipalities in the future.</p><p> ・This study showed quantitatively that the municipalities with a low risk of urban shrinkage and a high potential of population growth had a low possibility of closed schools, although the municipalities locating its opposite had a high possibility of closed schools.</p><p> ・By the discriminant analysis and the multiple regression analysis, we clarified that several factors affected to the school closure including: the factors relating to the school organization and operation directly, such as the number of schools, the number of classes, the number of students, and the number of students per school, and the geographical factors such as the ratio of forest and field located in the mountainous inter-regions, and lastly the merger and financial health of the municipalities.</p><p> </p><p> In the Tokai region, due to the aging of the population and the hollowing-out of central district in the urban areas, a certain number of closed schools are regularly seen. From around 2000, the number of closed schools began to increase due to the weakening of the potential of population growth in the three prefectures other than Aichi prefecture, in which the differences in the characteristics of closed schools appeared. From 2003, the number of closed schools also increased, especially in the municipalities of Gifu prefecture, Mie prefecture, and Shizuoka prefecture, which merged in a wide range of mountainous areas. Since then, as facing with the moment of transition to a society with a declining population, there has been a closure of schools due to further slowing of growth, not only in municipalities in the mountainous areas of Gifu Prefecture, Mie Prefecture, and Shizuoka Prefecture, but also in other urban areas and its suburbs, as the survey year progresses.</p><p> </p><p> In this manner, conducting an analysis from the perspective of changes in social factors over time revealed that, the differences in the growth potential of each prefecture have resulted in the different characteristics of the school closures and the cause of changes by regions. Also, analyzing it by the groups of municipalities made appear that there were distinct differences in the rate of growth of the groups, which affected to the characteristics of school closures.</p>

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