Soviet ballistic missile defense and the Western alliance

著者

書誌事項

Soviet ballistic missile defense and the Western alliance

David S. Yost

Harvard University Press, 1988

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注記

Bibliography: p. [309]-393

Includes index

内容説明・目次

内容説明

This is a study of the strategic challenges that Soviet ballistic missile defense (BMD) programs may pose for the Western alliance. David Yost suggests that the challenges for Western policy stem partly from Soviet military programs, Soviet arms control policies, and Soviet public diplomacy campaigns, and partly from the West's own intra-alliance disagreements and lack of consensus about Western security requirements. By reviewing the history of Western assessments of Soviet BMD, Yost shows that long before the American strategic defense initiative (SDI) was launched, Soviet BMD system modernization and infrastructure expansion were well under way, and that current Soviet programs are not mainly reactive to the SDI. Yost judges that the Soviets are probably better prepared than the Americans to deploy a network of traditional, ground-based BMD systems that would have at least some military value in the next decade, particularly against the limited and selective retaliatory attacks envisaged in NATO strategy. He does not argue that the Soviets are preparing for a clear-cut "breakout" from current arms control limits on BMD, but he notes the risks posed by activities that could eventually amount to a "creepout" from certain treaty constraints. Because of such ambiguities and the seriousness of the strategic and political stakes, the West should be prepared to pursue any necessary countermeasures in a timely fashion. His aim in this book is to advance understanding of the possible strategic challenges to the West and to identify potential points of consensus for Western policies.

目次

Introduction Background: Ballistic Missile Defense and Alliance Security Reassessments of Soviet Strategic Defense 1. Soviet BMD Capabilities and Activities Before the ABM Treaty Since the ABM Treaty Overall Soviet BMD Prospects 2. Interpretations of Soviet Behavior "Arms Race" Interactions Bureaucratic Politics A Composite Hypothesis Approval of the ABM Treaty Military Doctrine Force Posture Trends Interpretations and inferences 3. Implications for the Western Alliance Soviet Strategic Priorities Potential Consequences in War Potential Consequences in Peace 4. Soviet Arms Control Diplomacy and the Unlikely Prospect of Breakout Incentives and Inhibitions Regarding Breakout The U.S. Strategic Defense Initiative in Soviet Eyes Soviet Arms Control Policy 5. Alliance Reactions: Arms Control and Deterrence Grounds for Western Consensus Continuing Arms Control Efforts Force Posture Improvements Maintaining Stable Deterrence and Alliance Security Notes Index

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