Prospects for future climate : a special US/USSR report on climate and climate change
著者
書誌事項
Prospects for future climate : a special US/USSR report on climate and climate change
Lewis Publishers, [1990]
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注記
"Prepared under the auspices of the US/USSR agreement on protection of the environment"
Bibliography: p. 235-267
内容説明・目次
内容説明
This new book describes the effects of the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases and the potential for climate change and impact on agriculture and hydrology. Projections are based on insights from both numerical models and empirical methods. The book reviews climates of the distant and recent past and the results of climate models seeking lessons that can help project future climate. Extensive paleoclimatic studies emphasized by Soviet scientists and the intensive modeling efforts emphasized by U.S. scientists make this a required reference for atmospheric scientists, hydrologists, paleoclimatologists, agriculturalists, regulators, libraries and anyone interested in the field of climate change.
目次
Summary. INTRODUCTION. PAST CHANGES IN GLOBAL CLIMATE. INTRODUCTION. CAUSES OF CLIMATE CHANGE OVER THE GEOLOGIC PAST. CLIMATES OF THE CENOZOIC ERA (THE LAST 67 MILLION YEARS). PLEISTOCENE ICE CORE DATA AND CLIMATE. PALEOCLIMATE RECONSTRUCTIONS FOR THREE PERIODS OF RELATIVE GLOBAL WARMTH. The Mid-Holocene (6000 to 5000 Years Ago). The Eemian Interglacial (125 Thousand Years Ago). The Pliocene Optimum (4.3 to 3.3 Million Years Ago). Similarities Among Past Warm Periods. LESSONS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE FUTURE. RECENT GLOBAL CLIMATIC TRENDS. INTRODUCTION. NATURAL CLIMATIC VARIABILITY. CHANGES IN MEAN SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURE. Land-Based Analyses. Uncertainties in the Land-Based Observations. Ocean Surface Temperatures. CHANGES IN PRECIPITATION OVER THE CONTINENTS. Observed Changes in Precipitation. Uncertainties in the Precipitation Record. Sensitivity of Precipitation to Changes of Temperature. CHANGES IN SEA LEVEL. LESSONS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE FUTURE. CHANGES IN ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION. INTRODUCTION. CARBON DIOXIDE AND THE GLOBAL CARBON CYCLE. Observed Changes in Atmospheric Composition. The Natural Carbon Cycle. The Effects of Human Activities on the Carbon Cycle. TRACE GREENHOUSE CONSTITUENTS. Methane. Halocarbons. Nitrous Oxide. Ozone. Stratospheric Water Vapor. Other Greenhouse Gases. Aerosols. PROJECTIONS OF FUTURE CONCENTRATIONS. Carbon Dioxide. Other Greenhouse Gases. THE DIRECT RADIATIVE INFLUENCE. LESSONS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE FUTURE. THEORETICAL ESTIMATES OF GREENHOUSE-GAS-INDUCED CLIMATE CHANGE. INTRODUCTION. MATHEMATICAL CLIMATE MODELS. Energy Balance Models. Radiative-Convective Models. General Circulation Models. EQUILIBRIUM CLIMATE CHANGE. Surface Air Temperature. Precipitation Rate. Soil Moisture. TIME-DEPENDENT CLIMATE CHANGE. Response Time of the Climate System. Response Similitude of the Climate System. LESSONS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE FUTURE. EMPIRICAL METHODS FOR ESTIMATING FUTURE CLIMATIC CONDITIONS. INTRODUCTION. THE EMPIRICAL APPROACH TO ESTIMATING FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE. EMPIRICAL ESTIMATES OF CLIMATE SENSITIVITY. Mean Air Temperatures in the Past. Probable Mean Air Temperatures in the Future. ASSOCIATING PAST WARM EPOCHS WITH FUTURE CLIMATES. EMPIRICAL ESTIMATES OF FUTURE CHANGES IN CLIMATE. Future Changes in the Temperature and Precipitation Distributions. The Reliability of Estimates of Future Climate. Probable Future Changes in Soil Moisture. EMPIRICAL ESTIMATES AND RECENT TRENDS. LESSONS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE FUTURE. IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATER RESOURCES AND AGRICULTURE. INTRODUCTION. IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATER RESOURCES. Methodological Approaches. Review of Recent Research. Assessment of Possible Changes in USSR River Runoff. Assessment of Possible Changes in North American Hydrology. CRITICAL WATER RESOURCES ISSUES. Water Management and Planning. Surface Water Quality. Soil Moisture. Frequency of Extreme Events. Generation of Hydroelectricity. IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURE. Review of Recent Studies of Agricultural Impacts. Direct Effects of CO2. CRITICAL ISSUES IN AGRICULTURAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT. Variability. Drought. Technology. Global Food Trade and Vulnerable Regions. Environmental Quality. Adaptation. LESSONS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE FUTURE. PROSPECTS FOR FUTURE CLIMATE. FINDINGS FROM STUDIES OF ANCIENT CLIMATES. FINDINGS FROM STUDIES OF CLIMATES OF THE RECENT PAST. LESSONS FROM ANALYSES OF ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION. SIMULATION OF THE GLOBAL CLIMATE. EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF THE CLIMATE RECORD. PROJECTIONS OF FUTURE CLIMATE. PROSPECTS FOR IMPACTS ON WATER RESOURCES AND AGRICULTURAL. RESEARCH DIRECTIONS FOR THE FUTURE. WORKING GROUP VIII AND FUTURE CLIMATE. REFERENCES. APPENDIX. ACRONYMS.
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