Long-wave rhythms in economic development and political behavior
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書誌事項
Long-wave rhythms in economic development and political behavior
Johns Hopkins University Press, c1991
- : hc
- : pbk
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注記
Bibliography: p. 223-236
Includes index
内容説明・目次
- 巻冊次
-
: hc ISBN 9780801840357
内容説明
Is economic development a "random walk" or do underlying rhythms and cycles make it possible to anticipate long-term trends? Many social scientists have rejected the notion of long-term periodicity in economic trends. Now, after extensive analysis of economic data, distinguished scholar Brian J. L. Berry has found new evidence for the reliability-and the value-of "long-wave" theory.
In Long-Wave Rhythms in Economic Development and Political Bahavior, Berry argues that the synchronization of long waves and growth cycles is "more than a figment of some overactive imagination". Presenting his findings graphically, he argues that there is persuasive evidence of the existence of "deterministic chaos". Applying his analysis of rates of change to the economic phenomena of prices (Kondratiev cycles) and growth (Kuznets cycles), he discovers that pairs of 25-year growth cycles are embedded within 55-year long waves. As a result, Berry concludes, two different kinds of growth cycles- one inflationary and the other deflationary-form a complementary pattern of alternating crises with stagflation and depression. Berry also explores the "shifting sand" of cyclical phenomena in the stock market, voting behavior, the incidence of wars, the rise and fall of great powers, and mass psychologies. While avoiding dogmatic conclusions, he offers a provocative discussion of the long-wave context of social phenomena.
As he examines the American economy in long-wave context, Berry optimistically asserts that the "bust" is not inevitable. Technological advances in information transfer enable leaders and organizations to anticipate and alleviate the adverse effects of economic cycles. "Like it or not," he writes, "our lives appear to be embedded in a higher order of complexity: collectively, we are a societal organism that displays self-regulating fluctuations around a path of growth."
目次
List of Figures and Tables
Acknowledgements
Introduction
Chapter 1. The Kondratiev Question: Have There Been Long Wave of Prices?
Chapter 2. Long-Wave Explanations: Kondratiev and His Successors
Chapter 3. The Kuznets Question: Have There Been Long Cycles of Growth?
Chapter 4. Explanations of Growth Cycles: Kuznets and Kin
Chapter 5. The Synchronized Movements of Grwoth and Prices
Chapter 6. Phases of Development and the Long-Wave Clock
Chapter 7. The Question of Elliott Waves: Another Long-Wave Rhythm?
Chapter 8. What about Cycles in American Poilitics and the Timing of Critical Elections?
Chapter 9. Cycles of War and World Leadership
Chapter 10. The Stars of the Genes: Images of Predestination
Chapter 11. What Time Is It Now?
Chapter 12. What lies Ahead? Is There Freedom to Choose?
Appendix A. Price Dynamics: The Growth Rates of Prices Smoothed by Successively Longer Moving Averages
Appendix B. Growth Dynamics: The Growth Rates of Real Per Capita GNP Smoothed by Successively Longer Moving Averages
- 巻冊次
-
: pbk ISBN 9780801840364
内容説明
Is economic development a "random walk" or do underlying rhythms and cycles make it possible to anticipate long-term trends? Many social scientists have rejected the notion of long-term periodicity in economic trends. Now, after extensive analysis of economic data, distinguished scholar Brian J. L. Berry has found new evidence for the reliability-- and the value-- of "long-wave" theory. In "Long-Wave Rhythms in Economic Development and Political Bahavior", Berry argues that the synchronization of long waves and growth cycles is "more than a figment of some overactive imagination". Presenting his findings graphically, he argues that there is persuasive evidence of the existence of "deterministic chaos". Applying his analysis of rates of change to the economic phenomena of prices (Kondratiev cycles) and growth (Kuznets cycles), he discovers that pairs of 25-year growth cycles are embedded within 55-year long waves. As a result, Berry concludes, two different kinds of growth cycles-- one inflationary and the other deflationary-- form a complementary pattern of alternating crises with stagflation and depression.
Berry also explores the "shifting sand" of cyclical phenomena in the stock market, voting behavior, the incidence of wars, the rise and fall of great powers, and mass psychologies. While avoiding dogmatic conclusions, he offers a provocative discussion of the long-wave context of social phenomena. As he examines the American economy in long-wave context, Berry optimistically asserts that the "bust" is not inevitable. Technological advances in information transfer enable leaders and organizations to anticipate and alleviate the adverse effects of economic cycles. "Like it or not", he writes, "our lives appear to be embedded in a higher order of complexity: collectively, we are a societal organism that displays self-regulating fluctuations around a path of growth."
目次
List of Figures and Tables
Acknowledgements
Introduction
Chapter 1. The Kondratiev Question: Have There Been Long Wave of Prices?
Chapter 2. Long-Wave Explanations: Kondratiev and His Successors
Chapter 3. The Kuznets Question: Have There Been Long Cycles of Growth?
Chapter 4. Explanations of Growth Cycles: Kuznets and Kin
Chapter 5. The Synchronized Movements of Grwoth and Prices
Chapter 6. Phases of Development and the Long-Wave Clock
Chapter 7. The Question of Elliott Waves: Another Long-Wave Rhythm?
Chapter 8. What about Cycles in American Poilitics and the Timing of Critical Elections?
Chapter 9. Cycles of War and World Leadership
Chapter 10. The Stars of the Genes: Images of Predestination
Chapter 11. What Time Is It Now?
Chapter 12. What lies Ahead? Is There Freedom to Choose?
Appendix A. Price Dynamics: The Growth Rates of Prices Smoothed by Successively Longer Moving Averages
Appendix B. Growth Dynamics: The Growth Rates of Real Per Capita GNP Smoothed by Successively Longer Moving Averages
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