Dynamics of technological change
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書誌事項
Dynamics of technological change
Van Nostrand Reinhold, c1991
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注記
Includes bibliographical references and index
内容説明・目次
内容説明
Technology is not an end in itself, but a way of satisfying human wants. It shows us how to solve the age-old economic problem of surviving and pros- pering in a hard world. But to optimize the benefits of technological advance requires an understanding of how it happens. The purpose of this book is to provide some of that understanding. The subject is so enormous and so intertwined with every human activity that a small selection of it, and that from a special viewpoint, is inevitable. The selection of subject matter has been, of course, conditioned by what interests me and is somewhat heterogeneous. However, it is connected by two major themes. The first is that it emphasizes the dynamic nature of technology, in the sense that it must be approached as a process evolving in time that can often be described in quantitative terms. The second is that I have chosen topics that I believe are essential for a strategic sense of how to plan for, execute, and respond to technological change.
These two themes complement each other because the strategic sense requires an appreciation of the dynamics and the dynamics naturally lead to a consideration of how to deal with technology so that it can be used to achieve human objectives. The unifying thought behind the book is that technological change has a systemic as well as an idiosyncratic aspect.
目次
1. Basic Concepts of Technological Change.- Defining Technological Change.- Measuring Technological Change.- Theories of Technological Change.- Determinants of Technological Change.- Enterprises, Systems, and Hierarchies.- Five Patterns.- Interactions Among Systemic Trends.- A Systemic Model of Technological Change.- 2. Technical Progress and Performance.- Aspects of Technological Progress.- Measurement of Technical Performance.- Case Study: Aviation.- The Learning Curve.- Production Costs and the Learning Curve.- Case Study: Farm Tractors.- Case Study: Underground Coal Mining.- 3. Innovation, Research, and Development.- Clusters and Waves.- Frequency of Innovation.- The Origin of Clustering.- Inventions and Time Lags.- Innovation and Business Cycles.- The Origins of Innovations.- The Effect of Corporate Size.- Functions of R&D.- Definitions of Success in R&D.- Technological Cycles and R&D.- The Technology-Driven Corporate Cycle.- Technological Discontinuities.- The R&D Portfolio.- Characteristics of Industrial R&D.- Determinants of Successful R&D.- 4. Technological Diffusion and Substitution.- Technological Diffusion.- Diffusion Analysis.- Substitution Analysis.- Multilevel Substitution.- The Diesel Locomotive: An Example of Binary Substitution.- The Diffusion of Radio Broadcasting.- Steelmaking: An Example of Multilevel Substitution.- Results of Diffusion and Substitution Studies.- Nuclear Power: A Case of Interrupted Substitution.- Diffusion and the Clustering of Technologies.- Some Comments on Causal Factors.- 5. The Dynamics of Energy Usage.- The Energy Transition.- Energy Sources.- Energy in the Economy.- The Efficiency of Energy Utilization.- Patterns of Consumption.- The Energy Inventory.- Patterns of Production: The Hewett-Hubbert Model.- 6. The Electronic Digital Computer.- Significance of the Computer.- The Precursors.- COLOSSUS.- The ENIAC.- Turing and von Neumann.- Downfall of the Moore School.- Post-Eniac Machines.- Computer Companies.- Evolution of Modern Computer Technology.- Computer Performance.- Diffusion of Computers.- Summary.- 7. The Industrial Transition.- Measures of Industrialization.- World Industrialization.- Economic Growth and Industrialization.- Postwar World Economic Growth.- Catch-Up.- The First Transition.- The American Transition.- Material Resources.- Materials and World Industrialization.- Appendix 1. Mathematics of Technological Growth.- Forms of Growth Laws.- Properties of the Exponential.- Properties of the Logistic.- Properties of the Decaying Exponential Rise.- The Gompertz Equation.- Superacceleration.- Competitive Growth.- Multilevel Substitution.- The Lognormal Distribution.- Horizontal Analysis.- Learning Curves and Technological Progress.- Data Smoothing.- Appendix 2. Chronology of Innovation.- Appendix 3. Data Tables.- List of Tables.- References.- Additional Readings.
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