Risk, ambiguity, and decision

著者

• Ellsberg, Daniel

書誌事項

Risk, ambiguity, and decision

Daniel Ellsberg

（Studies in philosophy）

Garland Pub., 2001

注記

Originally presented as the author's thesis (doctoral)--Harvard University, 1962

Bibliography: p. 271-281

内容説明・目次

内容説明

Ellsberg elaborates on "Risk, Ambiguity, and the Savage Axioms" and mounts a powerful challenge to the dominant theory of rational decision in this book.

目次

• Acknowledgments
• Note to Reader
• Foreword, Isaac Levi
• 1. Ambiguity and Risk
• Vagueness, Confidence, and the Weight of Arguments
• The Nature and Uses of Normative Theory
• The Validation of Normative Propositions
• The Utility Axioms as Norms
• Normative Theory and Empirical Research
• 2. The Bernoulli Proposition
• A Possible Counterexample: Are there Uncertainties that are Not Risks?
• Vulgar Evaluations of Risk
• 3. The Measurement of Definite Opinions
• von Neumann-Morgenstern Utilities
• Probability as Price
• "Coherence" and "Definiteness" of Probability-Prices
• Appendix to Chapter Three
• On Making a Fool of Oneself: The Requirement of Coherence
• Acceptable Odds: Definite, Coherent, and Otherwise
• 4. Opinions and Actions: Which Come First?
• The Logic of Degrees of Belief
• Opinions that Make Horse Races
• Postulate 2: the "Sure-Thing Principle"
• Intuitive Probabilities and "Vagueness"
• Appendix to Chapter Four
• The Savage Postulates
• The Koopman Axioms
• 5. Uncertainties that are Not Risks
• The "Three-Color Urn" Example
• Vulgar Evaluations of Ambiguity
• Appendix to Chapter Five
• 6. Why Are Some Uncertainties Not Risks?
• Decision Criteria for "Complete Ignorance"
• Decision Criteria for "Partial Ignorance"
• 7. The "Restricted Hurwicz Criterion"
• The "Restricted Bayes/Hurwicz Criterion"
• Boldness and Prudence: the "n-Color Urn" Example
• Ignorance, Probability, and Varieties of Gamblers
• 8. Ambiguity and the Utility Axioms
• The Pratt/Raiffa Criticisms and the Value of Randomization
• Rubin's Axiom
• Allais and the Sure-Thing Principle
• Winning at Russian Roulette
• Bibliography

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詳細情報

• NII書誌ID(NCID): BA63068104
• ISBN:
  • 0815340222
• 出版国コード: us
• タイトル言語コード: eng
• 本文言語コード: eng
• 出版地: New York
• ページ数/冊数: liii, 281 p.
• 大きさ: 24 cm
• 分類:
  • LCC : QA279.4
  • DC21 : 658.4/03
• 件名:
  • LCSH : Decision making
  • LCSH : Statistical decision
• 親書誌ID:
  • BA48421431