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v. 1 ISBN 9780444513953
内容説明
Research on forecasting methods has made important progress over recent years and these developments are brought together in the Handbook of Economic Forecasting. The handbook covers developments in how forecasts are constructed based on multivariate time-series models, dynamic factor models, nonlinear models and combination methods. The handbook also includes chapters on forecast evaluation, including evaluation of point forecasts and probability forecasts and contains chapters on survey forecasts and volatility forecasts. Areas of applications of forecasts covered in the handbook include economics, finance and marketing.
目次
Part 1. Forecasting methodology.
1. Bayesian forecasting (J. Geweke, C. Whiteman).
2. Forecasting and decision theory (C.W.J.Granger, M.J. Machina).
3. Forecast evaluation (K.D. West).
4. Forecast combinations (A. Timmermann).
5. Predictive density evaluation (V. Corradi, N.R. Swanson).
Part 2. Forecasting models.
6. Forecasting with VARMA models (H. Lutkepohl).
7. Forecasting with unobserved components time series models (A. Harvey).
8. Forecasting economic variables with nonlinear models (T. Terasvirta).
9. Approximate nonlinear forecasting models (H. White).
Part 3. Forecasting with different data structures.
10. Forecasting with many predictors (J.H. Stock, M.W. Watson).
11. Forecasting with trending data (G. Elliott).
12. Forecasting with breaks (M.P. Clements, D.F. Hendry).
13. Forecasting seasonal time series (E. Ghysels, D.R. Osborn, P.M.M. Rodrigues).
14. Survey expectations (M.H. Pesaran, M. Weale).
Part 4. Applications of forecasting methods.
15.Volatility and correlation forecasting (T.G. Andersen, T. Bollerslev, P.F. Christoffersen, F.X. Diebold).
16. Leading Indicators (M. Marcellino).
17. Forecasting with real-time macroeconomic data (D. Croushore).
18. Forecasting in marketing (P.H. Franses).
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v. 2A ISBN 9780444536839
内容説明
The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the future comes from the core fields of economics. In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and ex post studies of business decisions have increased demand for information about economic forecasting. Volumes 2A and 2B, which follows Nobel laureate Clive Granger's Volume 1 (2006), concentrate on two major subjects. Volume 2A covers innovations in methodologies, specifically macroforecasting and forecasting financial variables. Volume 2B investigates commercial applications, with sections on forecasters' objectives and methodologies. Experts provide surveys of a large range of literature scattered across applied and theoretical statistics journals as well as econometrics and empirical economics journals. The Handbook of Economic Forecasting Volumes 2A and 2B provide a unique compilation of chapters giving a coherent overview of forecasting theory and applications in one place and with up-to-date accounts of all major conceptual issues.
目次
Forecasting Inflation: Jon Faust and Jonathan Wright (Johns Hopkins University)
DSGE Model-Based Forecasting: Marco Del Negro (Federal Reserve Bank of New York) and Frank Schorfheide (University of Pennsylvania)
Forecasting Output: Marcelle Chauvet (University of California, Riverside) and Simon Potter (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)
Nowcasting and the Real Time Data Flow: Marta Banbura (European Central Bank), Domenico Giannone (Universite Libre de Bruxelles), Michele Modugno (University Libre de Bruxelles), and Lucrezia Reichlin (London Business School)
Forecasting and Policy Making: Volker Wieland and Maik Wolters (Goethe University, Frankfurt)
Forecasting Stock Returns: David Rapach (St. Louis University) and Guofu Zhou (Washington University at St Louis)
Forecasting Interest Rates: Gregory Duffee (Johns Hopkins University)
Forecasting the Price of Oil: Ron Alquist (Bank of Canada), Lutz Kilian (University of Michigan),and Robert J. Vigfusson (Federal Reserve Board)
Forecasting Real Estate Prices: Eric Ghysels (University of North Carolina), Alberto Plazzi (Lugano), Rossen Valkanov (University of California, San Diego) and Walter Torous (University of California, Los Angeles)
Forecasting with Option-Implied Information: Peter Christoffersen (University of Toronto), Kris Jacobs (University of Houston), and Bo Young Chang (Bank of Canada)
Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting: Erik Snowberg (Caltech), Justin Wolfers (Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania), and Eric Zitzewitz (Dartmouth College)
Forecasters' Objectives and Strategies: Ivan Marinovich (Stanford University), Marco Ottaviani (Northwestern University and Bocconi), and Peter Sorensen (University of Copenhagen)
Forecasting Exchange Rates: an Investor Perspective: Michael Melvin, John Prins, and Duncan Shand (BlackRock)
Variable Selection in Predictive Regressions: Serena Ng (Columbia University)
Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions: Sune Karlsson (Orebro University)
Copula Methods for Forecasting Multivariate Time Series: Andrew Patton (Duke University)
Quantile Prediction: Ivana Komunjer (University of California, San Diego)
Panel Data Forecasting: Badi Baltagi (Syracuse University)
Forecasting Binary Outcomes: Kajal Lahiri and Liu Yang (State University of New York, Albany)
Advances in Forecast Evaluation: Todd Clark (Kansas Fed) and Michael McCracken (St. Louis Fed)
Advances in Forecasting under Instability: Barbara Rossi (Universitat Pompeu Fabra)
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v. 2B ISBN 9780444627315
内容説明
The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the future comes from the core fields of economics. In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and ex post studies of business decisions have increased demand for information about economic forecasting. Volumes 2A and 2B, which follows Nobel laureate Clive Granger's Volume 1 (2006), concentrate on two major subjects. Volume 2A covers innovations in methodologies, specifically macroforecasting and forecasting financial variables. Volume 2B investigates commercial applications, with sections on forecasters' objectives and methodologies. Experts provide surveys of a large range of literature scattered across applied and theoretical statistics journals as well as econometrics and empirical economics journals. The Handbook of Economic Forecasting Volumes 2A and 2B provide a unique compilation of chapters giving a coherent overview of forecasting theory and applications in one place and with up-to-date accounts of all major conceptual issues.
目次
Forecasting Inflation: Jon Faust and Jonathan Wright (Johns Hopkins University)
DSGE Model-Based Forecasting: Marco Del Negro (Federal Reserve Bank of New York) and Frank Schorfheide (University of Pennsylvania)
Forecasting Output: Marcelle Chauvet (University of California, Riverside) and Simon Potter (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)
Nowcasting and the Real Time Data Flow: Marta Banbura (European Central Bank), Domenico Giannone (Universite Libre de Bruxelles), Michele Modugno (University Libre de Bruxelles), and Lucrezia Reichlin (London Business School)
Forecasting and Policy Making: Volker Wieland and Maik Wolters (Goethe University, Frankfurt)
Forecasting Stock Returns: David Rapach (St. Louis University) and Guofu Zhou (Washington University at St Louis)
Forecasting Interest Rates: Gregory Duffee (Johns Hopkins University)
Forecasting the Price of Oil: Ron Alquist (Bank of Canada), Lutz Kilian (University of Michigan),and Robert J. Vigfusson (Federal Reserve Board)
Forecasting Real Estate Prices: Eric Ghysels (University of North Carolina), Alberto Plazzi (Lugano), Rossen Valkanov (University of California, San Diego) and Walter Torous (University of California, Los Angeles)
Forecasting with Option-Implied Information: Peter Christoffersen (University of Toronto), Kris Jacobs (University of Houston), and Bo Young Chang (Bank of Canada)
Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting: Erik Snowberg (Caltech), Justin Wolfers (Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania), and Eric Zitzewitz (Dartmouth College)
Forecasters' Objectives and Strategies: Ivan Marinovich (Stanford University), Marco Ottaviani (Northwestern University and Bocconi), and Peter Sorensen (University of Copenhagen)
Forecasting Exchange Rates: an Investor Perspective: Michael Melvin, John Prins, and Duncan Shand (BlackRock)
Variable Selection in Predictive Regressions: Serena Ng (Columbia University)
Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions: Sune Karlsson (Orebro University)
Copula Methods for Forecasting Multivariate Time Series: Andrew Patton (Duke University)
Quantile Prediction: Ivana Komunjer (University of California, San Diego)
Panel Data Forecasting: Badi Baltagi (Syracuse University)
Forecasting Binary Outcomes: Kajal Lahiri and Liu Yang (State University of New York, Albany)
Advances in Forecast Evaluation: Todd Clark (Kansas Fed) and Michael McCracken (St. Louis Fed)
Advances in Forecasting under Instability: Barbara Rossi (Universitat Pompeu Fabra)
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: set (v. 2) ISBN 9780444627322
内容説明
The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the future comes from the core fields of economics. In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and ex post studies of business decisions have increased demand for information about economic forecasting. Volumes 2A and 2B, which follows Nobel laureate Clive Granger's Volume 1 (2006), concentrate on two major subjects. Volume 2A covers innovations in methodologies, specifically macroforecasting and forecasting financial variables. Volume 2B investigates commercial applications, with sections on forecasters' objectives and methodologies. Experts provide surveys of a large range of literature scattered across applied and theoretical statistics journals as well as econometrics and empirical economics journals. The Handbook of Economic Forecasting Volumes 2A and 2B provide a unique compilation of chapters giving a coherent overview of forecasting theory and applications in one place and with up-to-date accounts of all major conceptual issues.
目次
Forecasting Inflation: Jon Faust and Jonathan Wright (Johns Hopkins University)
DSGE Model-Based Forecasting: Marco Del Negro (Federal Reserve Bank of New York) and Frank Schorfheide (University of Pennsylvania)
Forecasting Output: Marcelle Chauvet (University of California, Riverside) and Simon Potter (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)
Nowcasting and the Real Time Data Flow: Marta Banbura (European Central Bank), Domenico Giannone (Universite Libre de Bruxelles), Michele Modugno (University Libre de Bruxelles), and Lucrezia Reichlin (London Business School)
Forecasting and Policy Making: Volker Wieland and Maik Wolters (Goethe University, Frankfurt)
Forecasting Stock Returns: David Rapach (St. Louis University) and Guofu Zhou (Washington University at St Louis)
Forecasting Interest Rates: Gregory Duffee (Johns Hopkins University)
Forecasting the Price of Oil: Ron Alquist (Bank of Canada), Lutz Kilian (University of Michigan),and Robert J. Vigfusson (Federal Reserve Board)
Forecasting Real Estate Prices: Eric Ghysels (University of North Carolina), Alberto Plazzi (Lugano), Rossen Valkanov (University of California, San Diego) and Walter Torous (University of California, Los Angeles)
Forecasting with Option-Implied Information: Peter Christoffersen (University of Toronto), Kris Jacobs (University of Houston), and Bo Young Chang (Bank of Canada)
Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting: Erik Snowberg (Caltech), Justin Wolfers (Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania), and Eric Zitzewitz (Dartmouth College)
Forecasters' Objectives and Strategies: Ivan Marinovich (Stanford University), Marco Ottaviani (Northwestern University and Bocconi), and Peter Sorensen (University of Copenhagen)
Forecasting Exchange Rates: an Investor Perspective: Michael Melvin, John Prins, and Duncan Shand (BlackRock)
Variable Selection in Predictive Regressions: Serena Ng (Columbia University)
Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions: Sune Karlsson (Orebro University)
Copula Methods for Forecasting Multivariate Time Series: Andrew Patton (Duke University)
Quantile Prediction: Ivana Komunjer (University of California, San Diego)
Panel Data Forecasting: Badi Baltagi (Syracuse University)
Forecasting Binary Outcomes: Kajal Lahiri and Liu Yang (State University of New York, Albany)
Advances in Forecast Evaluation: Todd Clark (Kansas Fed) and Michael McCracken (St. Louis Fed)
Advances in Forecasting under Instability: Barbara Rossi (Universitat Pompeu Fabra)
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