Hidden Markov models for time series : an introduction using R

Author(s)

• Zucchini, W.
• MacDonald, Iain L.

Bibliographic Information

Hidden Markov models for time series : an introduction using R

Walter Zucchini, Iain L. MacDonald

（Monographs on statistics and applied probability, 110）

Chapman & Hall/CRC, c2009

Note

Includes bibliographical references (p. 257-265) and indexes

Description and Table of Contents

Description

Reveals How HMMs Can Be Used as General-Purpose Time Series Models Implements all methods in R Hidden Markov Models for Time Series: An Introduction Using R applies hidden Markov models (HMMs) to a wide range of time series types, from continuous-valued, circular, and multivariate series to binary data, bounded and unbounded counts, and categorical observations. It also discusses how to employ the freely available computing environment R to carry out computations for parameter estimation, model selection and checking, decoding, and forecasting. Illustrates the methodology in action After presenting the simple Poisson HMM, the book covers estimation, forecasting, decoding, prediction, model selection, and Bayesian inference. Through examples and applications, the authors describe how to extend and generalize the basic model so it can be applied in a rich variety of situations. They also provide R code for some of the examples, enabling the use of the codes in similar applications. Effectively interpret data using HMMs This book illustrates the wonderful flexibility of HMMs as general-purpose models for time series data. It provides a broad understanding of the models and their uses.

Table of Contents

MODEL STRUCTURE, PROPERTIES, AND METHODS Mixture Distributions and Markov Chains Introduction Independent mixture models Markov chains Hidden Markov Models: Definition and Properties A simple hidden Markov model The basics The likelihood Estimation by Direct Maximization of the Likelihood Introduction Scaling the likelihood computation Maximization subject to constraints Other problems Example: earthquakes Standard errors and confidence intervals Example: parametric bootstrap Estimation by the EM Algorithm Forward and backward probabilities The EM algorithm Examples of EM applied to Poisson HMMs Discussion Forecasting, Decoding, and State Prediction Conditional distributions Forecast distributions Decoding State prediction Model Selection and Checking Model selection by AIC and BIC Model checking with pseudo-residuals Examples Discussion Bayesian Inference for Poisson HMMs Applying the Gibbs sampler to Poisson HMMs Bayesian estimation of the number of states Example: earthquakes Discussion Extensions of the Basic Hidden Markov Model Introduction HMMs with general univariate state-dependent distribution HMMs based on a second-order Markov chain HMMs for multivariate series Series which depend on covariates Models with additional dependencies APPLICATIONS Epileptic Seizures Introduction Models fitted Model checking by pseudo-residuals Eruptions of the Old Faithful Geyser Introduction Binary time series of short and long eruptions Normal HMMs for durations and waiting times Bivariate model for durations and waiting times Drosophila Speed and Change of Direction Introduction Von Mises distributions Von Mises HMMs for the two subjects Circular autocorrelation functions Bivariate model Wind Direction at Koeberg Introduction Wind direction as classified into 16 categories Wind direction as a circular variable Models for Financial Series Thinly traded shares Multivariate HMM for returns on four shares Stochastic volatility models Births at Edendale Hospital Introduction Models for the proportion Caesarean Models for the total number of deliveries Conclusion Cape Town Homicides and Suicides Introduction Firearm homicides as a proportion of all homicides, suicides, and legal intervention homicides The number of firearm homicides Firearm homicide and suicide proportions Proportion in each of the five categories Animal-Behavior Model with Feedback Introduction The model Likelihood evaluation Parameter estimation by maximum likelihood Model checking Inferring the underlying state Models for a heterogeneous group of subjects Other modifications or extensions Application to caterpillar feeding behavior Discussion Appendix A: Examples of R code Stationary Poisson HMM, numerical maximization More on Poisson HMMs, including EM Bivariate normal state-dependent distributions Categorical HMM, constrained optimization Appendix B: Some Proofs Factorization needed for forward probabilities Two results for backward probabilities Conditional independence of Xt1 and XTt+1 References Author Index Subject Index Exercises appear at the end of most chapters.

by "Nielsen BookData"

Details

• NCID: BA90082629
• ISBN:
  • 9781584885733
• LCCN: 2009007294
• Country Code: us
• Title Language Code: eng
• Text Language Code: eng
• Place of Publication: Boca Raton
• Pages/Volumes: xxii, 275 p.
• Size: 24 cm
• Classification:
  • LCC : QA280
  • DC22 : 519.5/5
• Subject Headings:
  • LCSH : Time-series analysis
  • LCSH : Markov processes
  • LCSH : R (Computer program language)
• Parent Bibliography ID:
  • BA00231539